Tuesday, March 10, 2009

More Math, New vs. Old

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More math on the new systems....

Exclude the differences in hard drives (retail difference less than $50) and RAM (retail difference, less than $200.00)....

Old model prices:
8- core 2.8 GHz / 2 GB RAM/ 320 GB HD / ATI 2600XT Bang: 18,245 Bucks: $2,799.00 Bang / Bucks = 6.518 per $
8- core 3.2 GHz / 2 GB RAM/ 320 GB HD / ATI 2600XT Bang: 20.851 Bucks: $3,999.00 Bang / Bucks = 5.214 per $

New model prices:
8- core 2.26 GHz / 6 GB RAM/ 640 GB HD / 512 MB Nvidia GeForce GT 120 Bang: 18.088 Bucks: $3,299.00 Bang / Bucks = 5.483 per $
8- core 2.66 GHz / 6 GB RAM/ 320 GB HD / 512 MB Nvidia GeForce GT 120 Bang: 23.281 Bucks: $4,699.00 Bang / Bucks = 4.954 per $
8- core 2.93 GHz / 6 GB RAM/ 640 GB HD / 512 MB Nvidia GeForce GT 120 Bang: 25,644 Bucks: $5,899.00 Bang / Bucks = 4.347 per $

So basically the new models are a wallet ass kicking. Old models better bang for buck. The new low end 2.26 GHz system is just a little better in value than the old high end.

For the new high end bang / buck to be equivalent to the old high end (ignoring differences in hard drive, RAM and video card), it would have to be priced at $4,918.10 ((4.347 / 5.214) * $5,899) ... New 2.93 is 19.44% too expensive.


Rats.

Doing some math with the new "Nehalem" powered Mac Pro's

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OK so a buddy of mine at a local Los Angeles advertising agency sent me a link with benchmarks of the new "Nehalem" powered Mac Pro towers. People are scratching their heads about the higher priced & slower clocked Mac Pro's.

MacRumors.com Benchmarks

This is very reminiscent of the old "Megahertz Myth" days.

So Vic & his aerospace engineering degree did some math and is playing Devil's Advocate.

The previous generation "low end" 2.8 GHz 8 core got a score of 18,245 on high end render work, and the current "low end" 2.26 GHz got a score of 18,088 on multi-render operations.

Old 2.8 GHz 8-core: 18,245.
New 2.26 GHz 8-core: 18,088

18,245 / 18,088 = 1.008679787705, so the old low end was less than 1% faster. So if they made the new one 2.28 GHz, it would be faster than it, ho hum.

Yeah the new 2.93 smokes the old one (it would have been nice if they had benchmarks for the old 3.0 GHz and 3.2 GHz 8-core systems, but I did more math to address that below).

My only concern is the public perception that the old ones are slower, but I think pro users can see the pure benchmarks. Mom & Dad buying iMacs would scratch their heads if they released a slower clock speed machine for a higher price.

What I'm going to look for are the prices of the just discontinued systems, as the new ones cost more ... would like to compare bang-for-the-buck old vs. new.

And while these new ones are clocked lower, it just means that the new Nehalem processors are faster at a lower clock speed, and that'll give them more room to speed up for the .... ahem ... next generation.

If the old 3.0 and 3.2 GHz 8-cores increased speed linearly over the old 2.8, their scores would have been:

3.0 GHz 8-Core: 19,548
3.2 GHz 8-Core: 20,851

Thank makes the new 2.93 GHz 8-core 1.2298x as fast as the old 3.2 GHz 8-core. (25644 / 20851 = 1.229869071028), so a 23% improvement.

Scaling the new Nehalem to 3.2 GHz would give it a score of 28007, so...

28007 (Nehalem scaled to 3.2 GHz) / 20851 (Old 3.2 GHz 8-core) = 1.343 - so, at the same clock speed, the Nehalem is 34.3% faster than the previous generation.

So who has the previous generation price list for me?

Vic

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

The 17-Inch MacBook Pro (Unibody) Gets Lovingly Gutted

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Check out this take-apart of the new 17" MacBook Pro.

Tuesday, January 6, 2009

Apple launches unibody 17-inch MacBook Pro

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Apple at Macworld introduced a new version of the 17-inch MacBook Pro. The new model uses the same unibody aluminum construction of the 15-inch version and is just 0.98 inches thick -- enough to make it the thinnest 17-inch notebook ever, the company boasts. It now revolves around a 17-inch, LED-backlit 1920x1200 standard display that is much more accurate than in the previous generation: it claims a 60 percent larger color gamut, a clearer 700:1 contrast ratio and wider 140-degree horizontal and 120-degree vertical viewing angles.
The extra space is also used to ramp up performance and gives the system up to a 2.93GHz Core 2 Duo as well as room for up to 8GB of DDR3 memory. Battery life has also been dramatically improved, Apple claims: the stock model now lasts for up to eight hours of wireless use on a charge and has a lifecycle of up to 1,000 charges, making it more environmentally friendly than past notebook batteries. The feat is accomplished through a new intelligent system that adjusts the current to each battery cell on the fly to maximize the charge.

Expansion ports include a single FireWire 800 port, three USB ports, Ethernet, ExpressCard/34 and a Mini DisplayPort connector.

A single stock configuration at $2,799 is available and comes with a 2.66GHz Core 2 Duo, 4GB of memory, 320GB of hard drive space and a 512MB GeForce 9600M GT for video. Users can custom-order the system to swap the hard disk for a new 256GB solid-state drive and to pick a new, $50 anti-glare display option for professionals who need to stress absolute accuracy. The system should be available today from the online Apple Store.

Friday, April 25, 2008

Strong Mac sales lead Apple earnings growth

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SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Apple Inc. shares bounced back from a weak start Thursday as investors got behind the company following its second-quarter report in which strong sales of Macintosh PCs helped drive Apple's earnings up 36% from a year ago.

Apple rose $6.05 a share or 3.7%, to close at $168.94 after the company reported earnings of $1.05 billion, or $1.16 a share, on $7.51 billion in revenue for the quarter ended March 31.

During the same period a year ago, Apple earned $770 million, or 87 cents a share, on sales of $5.26 billion.

The results topped Apple's forecast for a profit of 94 cents a share and $6.8 billion in revenue. Analysts surveyed by FactSet
Research had estimated Apple would earn $1.05 a share on sales of $7 billion.

The highlight of the quarter was 2.29 million Macintosh computers sold, a 51% increase over the past year's second quarter. Barry Jaruzelski, a managing partner with Booz, Allen, Hamilton, said the results show that the Mac is now the driving the Apple machine.

"The Mac is on a tear," Jaruzelski said. "The halo effect of the iPod has resulted in a broader product portfolio, and now the Mac can pull the boat along for a while."

While the Mac has picked up steam, iPod sales showed some signs of reaching the plateau that had long been anticipated. Apple said it sold 10.6 million iPods during the quarter, just a 1% rise from the same period a year ago.
Gross margins as a percentage of revenue were 32.9%, down from 35.1% a year ago.

"The revenue and unit (sales) were very strong," said Shaw Wu, of American Technology Research. "However, the margins were lighter than expected." Wu cut his rating on Apple's stock to hold from buy on Tuesday. Complete technology coverage.
Apple also said it sold 1.7 million iPhones during the quarter. Chief Operating Officer Tim Cook said, "We're confident in hitting the 10 million (sales target) for the year."

In recent weeks, questions were raised about iPhone shortages at Apple retail stores, with speculation rising that the company was working through its inventories in order to prepare for the release of a third-generation, or 3G iPhone.
However, Cook said he believed the main reason for the lower stock of iPhones was because, "there are more phones being bought there with the intention of unlocking (the phone), which remains a significant number."
Guidance.

The upbeat earnings report had been tempered somewhat by one of Apple's typically conservative third-quarter outlooks, which came in shy of Wall Street analysts' estimates.

For its fiscal third-quarter, Apple expects to earn $1 a share on revenue of $7.2 billion. Analysts had previously forecast Apple would earn $1.09 a share on $7.23 billion in sales.

But Apple has a history of lowering quarterly estimates and then turning in results that are higher than expected.
BMO Capital Markets analyst Keith Bachman said in a research note that for the past three years, Apple has given a fiscal third-quarter outlook for earnings that would be below its second-quarter results, and then exceeded both numbers.

For example, last year, Apple reported second-quarter earnings of 87 cents a share, then forecast a third quarter profit of 66 cents a share. Apple ended up earning 92 cents a share for the quarter.

Bachman holds an outperform rating on Apple's stock. He also raised his current fiscal year earnings estimate for Apple to $5.13 a share from $5.10 a share.

Prior to the earnings call, Apple said it had acquired P.A. Semi, a privately held chipmaker based in Santa Clara, Calif. which makes power-efficient chips that are mostly used in networking and telecom equipment.
Apple didn't disclose terms of the deal, but reports said Apple paid $278 million.

3G iPhone Presents Stealth Opportunities

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One of the first events to follow the debut of the Apple (AAPL) 3G iPhone, whenever that happens, will be the ritual ripping apart of the device by various analysts to figure out who is making the guts of the thing. Since no one had a 3G iPhone yet - heck, Apple has not even officially said there will be one - it would be a challenge to do a tear down just yet. But Craig Berger, of Friedman, Billings Ramsey, today took up the challenge.

Berger said some digging with supply chain sources finds that most of the component suppliers will be comparable those in the existing EDGE version of the phone. Here's a rundown on what he thinks will be found inside:

Broadcom (BRCM), he says, keeps the touch screen controller socket in the 3G iPhone and a potential iPod Touch refresh design. He also thinks the company could have a Bluetooth/WiFi combo chip in the next iPod Touch.

Marvell (MRVL), Berger says, likely keeps the 802.11 WiFi socket in the iPhone, but may have lost the WiFi socket in the Touch to the Broadcom combo chip mentioned above.

Infineon (IFX) and Samsung "remain overall device winners," he says. Berger says Infineon may be providing the 3G baseband chip, the RF transceiver, a power management chip. (The company supplies the EDGE baseband chip in the current iPhone.) Samsung is likely to provide the application processor, as it does in the current phone.

NXP and Texas Instruments (TXN) "also have peripheral smaller sockets in the 3G iPhone," he writes. ))
My take on all this:

First, this is all speculation, but isn't that what we do? We won't have a real life tear down until either a beta or the real deal's released. Based on what's in the current phone and the fact that AAPL will want to maximize manufacturing efficiency, the number of significant changes to the 3G iPhone will likely be kept to a minimum, though I think the 3G version may yet hold a surprise or two. Note the BRCM and MRVL commentary.

IFX: this stock is currently dirt cheap and, as speculated above, could be a big winner from a 3G iPhone. However, IFX has been weighed down by various items, not the least of which is continuing writedowns of its QI ownership, which got even uglier yesterday. However, even while IFX's book value is declining due to these writedowns, the stock is still trading below book and IFX just reaffirmed FY'08 EBIT. Given a revenue growth catalyst the shares may find a foothold after declining to multi-year lows recently and digesting the latest writedown from QI. The worst case is that IFX may be a value trap, but downside (after the latest writedown), should be limited. On any more weakness the risk reward profile looks pretty compelling here.

InterDigital (IDCC): While IDCC has been embroiled in patent disputes with Nokia (NOK), it doesn't seem to have these issues with AAPL, who's paying them for the current iPhone and AAPL signed a seven-year deal with IDCC related to the current and future versions of the iPhone. Based on IDCC's much stronger 3G portfolio, it's probably well positioned to generate even higher royalty fees from the 3G iPhone. As I mentioned previously, this name could be one of the best, if not the best, tertiary plays on the coming 3G iPhone. Note that IFX's 3G chips carry licenses from IDCC.

Logitech (LOGI): This company just reported overnight with another very solid quarter and cited various products that benefit from the AAPL food chain. Stock is cheap with solid growth, lots of cash and the company mentioned it's not seeing negative experience from the reported slowdown. In fact, it reported solid growth in its U.S. markets. Bottom line, if the 3G iPhone is the huge hit I think it will be then LOGI that will get some solid downstream sales.

BRCM: As mentioned above, it makes the chip that is key to making all that cool touchscreen technology happen. If BRCM wins even more slots that certainly doesn't hurt. One slot the analyst doesn't mention is for GPS. I would be surprised if a 3G iPhone doesn't include GPS and I think BRCM has better than a 2/3 shot at winning this as well.

Moreover, as I've speculated before, I think it's just a matter of time before we see AAPL incorporate its touchscreen technology into its Mac lineup, most likely starting with laptops. This would be a leap in the evolution of GUI (graphical user interface) related to computing, and after years of the mouse, we are due. This would be simply huge for AAPL and BRCM.

MRVL doesn't generate a lot of revenue from the iPhone. However, I thought that the iPhone might initially carry the core application processor from MRVL (based on Xscale purchased from Intel (INTC) ), instead of Samsung. As it turns out, I wasn't alone with this assessment.

Anyway, MRVL supplies this for Research in Motion (RIMM) and I'm still holding out hope that the die is not cast for Samsung. At this point it doesn't look like there's any expectation for MRVL to win this business, so if it did, MRVL could see a significant move higher.

Wednesday, April 16, 2008

IBM launches internal pilot program to test migration to Macs

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Long-time Microsoft Windows supporter IBM has recently initiated an internal pilot program to study the possibility of moving a significant number of its employees to Apple's Mac platform, leaked company documents show.

The documents, obtained by Roughly Drafted, underscore the growing interest in Macs among enterprise customers and reveal IBM to among the high-tech firms actively working to reduce their dependence upon the Windows operating system.

The first phase of the pilot program is said to have run from October 2007 through January 2008, in which 24 MacBook Pros were distributed to researchers at different sites within the company's research division.

In the documents obtained by Roughly Drafted, the former PC-maker outlined a series of reasons for evaluating Apple notebooks as a replacement for the Windows-based ThinkPads currently used inside the company.

Specifically, it said Macs are less prone to security issues, are widely used in the academic world with which IBM Research has close ties, and that many new company hires have said they're more comfortable with Macs and would like to use them as opposed to their ThinkPads.

During the initial pilot, participants were allowed to keep their ThinkPads, but were asked to use them only in the event that they needed to use software that was not yet available on the Mac. After the four month test period, the 14 research scientists, 8 software engineers, a director, and a VP staff assistant participating in the pilot program were asked to provide feedback.

Of the 22 of 24 who responded, Roughly Drafted reported that 18 said that the Mac offered a "better or best experience" compared to their existing computer, one rated it "equal or good," and three said the Mac offered a "worse experience." Seven reported having no or marginal prior knowledge of using Macs, while 15 said they had moderate or expert knowledge of the platform.

While all of the participants reported that it was easy to install IBM’s internal software on the Macs, several noted weakness or drawbacks associated with applications that were not yet suited for the Apple platform, or faced support issues. Among these were Microsoft's Visio diagraming and NetMeeting software, and several of IBM's own applications, such as its DB2 database and Websphere application server.

However, when asked if they would rather keep their MacBook Pro or return to using their familiar ThinkPad, only three chose the ThinkPad; the rest decided to keep the Mac notebook and obtain VMWare Fusion licenses to run Windows when necessary.

"I commend IBM on taking this bold step in providing an alternative to Windows," one employee said following the initial evaluation period. "It will definitely allow us to think different."

Said another: "I have been a true PC stalwart for 2+ decades, but after trying Vista, I’m ready for a change."

Following the success of the initial pilot, IBM reportedly plans to proceed with a second phase of the program that will see 50 employees equipped with Apple notebooks during the first half of 2008. Pending feedback, the company will then add an additional 50 to 100 users in the second half of the year.

According to Roughly Drafted, IBM's internal "Mac@IBM" website references an official group for Mac users within the company's walls comprised of over 930 members in 26 countries. It's described as "one of the largest and fastest growing communities within IBM."